Can Egypt and Algeria imitate Tunisia?

When you have leaders who have been in power for a very long time, one party controlling everything, marginalization of the opposition, no transfer of power, plans for succession, small groups running the business and vast corruption, then you can say that the overall environment is ripe for an explosion at any second.


This is what happened in Tunisia. Economic hardships and political repression that led to the Tunisian uprising has resonated strongly in other Arab countries as well. Two more men set themselves on Fire in Egypt on January 18 and third was stopped.


Now the question is whether these violent protests can replicate the uprising of Tunisia in other countries, particularly Egypt and Algeria?



Well, an affirmative answer to the above question is not that easy. Each country is different, so it would be premature to say yes to the above question. Egypt lacks the broad and educated middle class failed to join the angry young men in rioting. 


Before the riots in Tunisia turned into a mass uprising against the rule of the longtime autocratic president, Zine el-Abidine Ben Ali, it appeared that either Egypt or Algeria stood a greater chance of some kind of mass public revolt. For years, both have suffered from sclerotic political systems led by aging presidents, with support from the military. For years, both have confronted protests over difficult economic conditions and widespread youth unemployment. 


Comparing Tunisia and Egypt 

1. In Tunisia the middle class and the trade unions joined protests that initially broke out over economic complaints, and helped transform the discontent into calls for political change. In Egypt, where the leadership continues to rely on a decades-old emergency law that allows arrest without charge, there is a lot of room for free and critical speech, offering a safety valve for expression that did not exist in Tunisia.
2. In Egypt, the array of interests that benefit from corruption is much wider than in Tunisia, where it was restricted to a small circle around the president. That means there are more people with an interest in preserving the system. 
3. And finally the military in Tunisia was not politicized and did not have any experience in securing city streets, unlike in Egypt, where the military has risen to the government’s defense before, and most likely would again.

Comparing Algeria and Tunisia

In Algeria, there are two primary differences with Tunisia that make comparisons imperfect. 

1. In Tunisia the riots spread all over the country and eventually involved different elements of society all on the same side. That gave the movement its moral power. But, in Algeria, that never happened. There was no real support from trade unions, in fact none at all as far as one can see, and there was a good deal of middle class hostility to them because of the destruction. The guys rioting were desperate, angry young men with no political perspective at all.
2. Algeria is not as repressive as Tunisia was. It is not an autocracy, it is an oligarchy i.e. in addition to the President Abdelaziz Bouteflika, there are multiple power centers, like the military, the intelligence services and the elite bureaucrats. It meant that unlike in Tunisia there is no one target of public ire, and no public sense that protests would help to dislodge those at fault.
3. Even though President Bouteflika is unpopular, people know their problems do not simply come down to him. You have a situation where there is a great deal of discontent, including in the middle class, but no one has any prescription for how to deal with it.